Comments (1 - 15 of 15)
|
Germán Leyens translated my article into Spanish and published
it in Rebelion (http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=69413) on June
26, 2008. Thank you, Germán!
Morir de hambre, morir de sed
Las crisis convergentes de los alimentos y del agua
En los últimos meses, crisis alimentarias y disturbios por alimentos en todo el mundo han dominado los titulares de los periódicos y capturado la atención de los medios de información y de los dirigentes políticos del globo. Aumentos de precios de los alimentos y de las materias primas hunden a unos mil millones de personas en todo el mundo cada vez más profundo en la pobreza y las llevan al borde de la desnutrición e incluso la inanición – forzando a esas masas de gente angustiada a protestar en las calles. Por fin los dirigentes del mundo están prestando atención al sufrimiento de los crónicamente pobres y hablan ahora de ‘crisis alimentarias’ que hacen estragos en las vidas de los desesperadamente pobres. A estas alturas, la mayoría de la gente sabe que los motivos para los mayores precios de los alimentos son los mayores precios del petróleo (que afectan a los insumos agrícolas basados en el petróleo, tales como fertilizantes, pesticidas), mayores precios del transporte de alimentos, el desvío de maíz y otros productos agrícolas para producir etanol y otros biocombustibles; más demanda de alimentos de la clase media emergente de China e India (y sus deseos de subir por la cadena alimentaria, de comer más carne, huevos, y productos lácteos), y sucesos climáticos extremos asociados con el calentamiento global. Poca gente ha asociado la escasez de alimentos con la escasez de agua – es decir, aparte de unos pocos artículos escritos por analistas y expertos en agua (por ejemplo, la relación establecida por Fred Pearce entre la escasez de agua y las crisis alimentarias).
Después que los grandes bancos de inversión y especuladores de Wall Street han hecho subir los precios de alimentos, petróleo y otras materias primas, están apuntando al próximo recurso de importancia: el agua. Goldman Sachs insta a los inversionistas a concentrarse en el sector de alta tecnología de la industria global del agua de 425.000 millones de dólares, porque el agua es el “petróleo del próximo siglo.” Áreas potenciales de inversión para Wall Street incluyen a los fabricantes o prestadores de servicios de equipos de filtración de agua, desinfección ultravioleta, tecnología de desalinización basada en membranas, medidores de agua automatizados, y otros nichos especializados en la reutilización de aguas servidas (The Telegraph, 6 de junio de 2008). Goldman Sachs también publicó una gráfica llamada “Mayor rendimiento del sector del agua en relación con S&P 500,” mostrando tendencias de 2000 a 2008 en las que el índice del sector del agua subió a 400 mientras S&P 500 se quedó en, o por debajo de, el nivel de 100 (valores rebasados a 100).
Existe una crisis convergente en ciernes de los alimentos y del agua, con ocho tendencias extremadamente inquietantes e interrelacionadas en el agua, como sigue:
Según la región bajo estudio, cualquiera, o una combinación, de estos factores afectará los suministros, la entrega, y en tratamiento de agua fresca en los próximos años. También afectarán a la producción agrícola y de alimentos para miles de millones de personas en todo el mundo. Basta la concentración en solo dos factores de calentamiento global y de la disminución de acuíferos, como sigue, para darnos suficientes preocupaciones sobre la sostenibilidad y el futuro de la producción agrícola.
Algunos hechos:
El
agua es la base de la agricultura – no sólo en el cultivo de alimentos,
sino también en su elaboración. El agua es el fundamento de las
ciudades modernas y de sistemas de saneamiento urbanos – desde nuestra
fontanería doméstica hasta plantas centralizadas de tratamiento de
aguas servidas. El agua es la base de las industrias y de la
manufactura. El agua sustenta la naturaleza, la fauna y la flora. En
esencia, la humanidad puede vivir sin petróleo – aunque de manera más
primitiva – pero no puede sobrevivir sin agua. A pesar de su
importancia, el tema del agua ha sido integrado con poca frecuencia en
nuestras discusiones de las crisis alimentarias, excepto cuando
hablamos brevemente del calentamiento global y de las sequías extremas
que afectan a las regiones donde hay cultivos. Entrevistada por el New
York Times (2 de junio de 2008), Barbara Helferrich, portavoz del
Directorado del Medioambiente de la Unión Europea, dijo: “El agua será
el tema ecológico de este año – el problema es urgente e inmediato. Si
ya hay escasez de agua en la primavera, se sabe que va a ser un verano
realmente malo.” Un escritor sobre el medio ambiente basado en el Reino
Unido, Fred Pearce, escribió recientemente que la escasez de agua es
una causa importante para las fallas en la producción agrícola que
resulta en escasez de alimentos: por ejemplo:
Goldman Sachs anunció que el agua será el “petróleo del próximo siglo” Por lo tanto tenemos que preguntar; ¿qué hay respecto al agua en medio de esta precaria economía global y la creciente fragilidad del mundo natural? ¿Cómo afectará la escasez y la volatilidad del suministro de agua a la producción de alimentos y a las crisis alimentarias? Una similitud entre el petróleo y el agua es la de la disminución del suministro y el rápido crecimiento de la demanda. Con la escasez, aparecen conflictos y guerras – este punto lo dejó en claro el libro de Michael Klare publicado en 2002 “Resource Wars” [Guerras por recursos]. Además, muchos otros analistas – desde los que trabajan para la CIA a los de Naciones Unidas y de la revista Forbes – han predicho hace tiempo que el agua es el principal recurso por el que las naciones irán a la guerra. El príncipe heredero holandés Willem-Alexander fue el anterior presidente del Foro Mundial del Agua en 2001; también es el nieto mayor del príncipe Bernardo de Holanda, fundador del grupo elitista, altamente secreto, llamado los Bilderberg en los años cincuenta; su madre, la reina Beatriz, es también miembro de los Bilderberg y principal accionista de Royal Dutch Shell. El antiguo Secretario General de la ONU, Boutros Boutros-Ghali también dijo: “El agua será más importante que el petróleo en este siglo” y que el agua es el próximo petróleo por el que las naciones librarán guerras. El difundo senador estadounidense, Paul Simon dijo: “Las naciones van a la guerra por el petróleo, pero hay sustitutos para el petróleo. ¿Cuánto más difíciles de resolver podrán ser guerras que sean libradas por el agua, un recurso aún más escaso para el que no hay sustituto?”
El vínculo entre el agua y los alimentos es evidente: sin agua, no puede haber una agricultura irrigada. Según el Telegraph en junio de 2008: “Una escasez catastrófica de agua podría ser una amenaza aún mayor para la humanidad en este siglo que los aumentos de los precios de los alimentos y el agotamiento implacable de las reservas de energía, según un panel de expertos globales en la conferencia ‘Los cinco principales riesgos’ de Goldman Sachs.”
Es ampliamente conocido que el genocidio en Darfur ha sido agravado por la competencia por recursos de agua y tierra entre nómadas árabes y agricultores africanos ya que sequías inducidas por el calentamiento global agravaron la desertificación en el norte de Darfur durante dos décadas. ¿Veremos en el futuro cercano, “disturbios por agua” y “guerras por agua” – o incluso genocidios y conflictos que se enmascaran como étnicos/tribales o religiosos cuando el conflicto real estalló por el agua? ¿Qué debiera preocuparnos y qué deberíamos hacer ahora para prevenir las crisis futuras por el agua? Concentrémonos en dos crisis inquietantes por el agua, la del calentamiento global y la de los acuíferos que se agotan.
Clima extremo, incertidumbres climáticas, y volatilidades en las precipitaciones A pesar de los actuales debates científicos sobre si el calentamiento global es causado por el hombre o si es un ciclo planetario natural, una cosa es segura para los científicos: este cambio climático no es una anomalía temporal. El calentamiento global se agravará en las próximas décadas. El clima se hará más extremo e imprevisible en muchas partes del mundo: por ejemplo, en junio, hemos visto catastróficas inundaciones en Iowa y en otros sitios del Medio Oeste de EE.UU., que devastaron la siembra de maíz de 2008. Los glaciares se derretirán aún más rápido, reduciendo aún más los suministros de agua fresca en muchas regiones. Las precipitaciones se harán aún más imprevisibles; mientras algunas partes del mundo recibirán más agua mediante inundaciones y tormentas, otras sufrirán un suministro reducido de aguas subterráneas e incluso sequías. Mientras los analistas han citado “anomalías climáticas temporales” (Washington Post, 30 de mayo de 2008, refiriéndose a sequías en Australia) como una razón para el agudo aumento de los precios de los alimentos, el calentamiento global no es un fenómeno climático temporal que afecta a las regiones productoras agrícolas del mundo. En breve, las sequías, inundaciones, tormentas, huracanes, y los modelos climáticos extremos en todo el globo no son eventos a corto plazo. Globalmente, el clima extremo será agravado aún más por la intensificación del calentamiento global en la próxima década. Los modelos climáticos descontrolados y extremos serán algo permanente – limitando a su vez el suministro de agua fresca y la producción de alimentos en muchas regiones productoras de alimentos.
En enero de 2005, el Centro Nacional de Investigación Atmosférica de EE.UU. (NCAR) publicó nuevos análisis vinculando la creciente temperatura global al clima extremo, diciendo que el área afectada por serias sequías en la Tierra se ha más que duplicado desde los años setenta y comienzos de los años dos mil y que sequías generalizadas ocurrieron en el oeste y el sur de África, el este de de Australia, gran parte de Asia y Europa, y Canadá (Journal of Hydrometerology, 2005). “Las sequías y las inundaciones son eventos climáticos extremos que probablemente cambien más rápido que el clima promedio,” dice Aiguo Dai de NCAR. “Porque son de los desastres naturales más costosos del mundo y afectan a cantidades muy grandes de personas cada año, es importante monitorearlos y tal vez predecir su variabilidad.” Unos pocos ejemplos de cómo el calentamiento global ha afectado la producción de alimentos y conflictos por recursos en todo el mundo, son los siguientes:
La desertificación es uno de los temas medioambientales más desatendidos de la actualidad, agravada por el calentamiento global. La desertificación es un problema crítico porque afecta la productividad de tierra arable y, consecuentemente, la producción de alimentos. Naciones Unidas ha estimado que más de 250 millones de personas son afectadas directamente por la desertificación en 110 países que ocupan un tercio de la superficie de la Tierra (esta cifra incluye a 135 millones de personas en peligro de ser expulsadas de sus tierras) y el sustento de mil millones de personas está en peligro. El que se esté degradando un 70% de las tierras secas agrícolas, en peligro de desertificarse, conlleva un precio de 42.000 millones de dólares por año. La desertificación además agrava la escasez de agua y degrada la tierra hasta el punto que ya no es productiva.
Los científicos pronostican que mientras el calentamiento global calienta el planeta, el clima será más húmedo en algunos lugares y más seco en otros. La peor parte de esos cambios del tiempo y de modelos volátiles de precipitación dejará a millones de personas sin suministros fiables de agua fresca para beber, la irrigación agrícola, y la energía hidráulica. El calentamiento global significa devastación para el futuro del agua y la agricultura de la mayoría de los países. Es obvio en consecuencia que tenemos que contar con que el calentamiento global disminuirá la disponibilidad de agua fresca a largo plazo, lo que a su vez reducirá también simultáneamente la producción de alimentos y empeorará la situación alimentaria y el hambre en muchos países en desarrollo.
Un futuro de más hambre debido a nuestra extracción insostenible de aguas subterráneas Habitualmente cuesta 1.000 toneladas de agua para producir 1 tonelada de cereal. Se estima que casi un 10% del suministro global de alimentos (160 millones de toneladas de cereales) es producido actualmente mediante la práctica insostenible de extraer aguas subterráneas según USAID. Pero el agotamiento del agua subterránea no es sólo una amenaza para la futura producción de alimentos – contribuye al aumento del nivel del mar. Por ejemplo, investigadores que publican en Hydrogeology Journal, establecieron que las extracciones estimadas de aguas subterráneas en el mundo son entre 750 y 800 km3/año, y que esta masiva cantidad de agotamiento de acuíferos puede resultar en un aumento del nivel del mar:
“En todo el mundo, la magnitud de la extracción de aguas subterráneas de su depósito puede ser tan grande que llegue a constituir un causante cuantificable del aumento del nivel del mar. Por ejemplo, el volumen total extraído del acuífero de High Planes equivale a cerca de 0,75 mm. o sea un 0,5% del aumento observado del nivel del mar durante el Siglo XX. La reducción de la futura extracción de aguas subterráneas (y el aumento del acopio de agua subterránea) pueden ayudar en pequeña escala a reducir futuros aumentos del nivel del mar.” (Konikow and Kendy, 2005)
La extracción insostenible de las aguas subterráneas y del acuífero agravará los efectos de modelos volátiles de precipitaciones sobre la agricultura. El agotamiento de acuíferos en unos pocos países productores de cereales y alimentos con gran población a saber: EE.UU., México, China, e India – es brevemente resumida como sigue:
El agua es parte integral de una agricultura irrigada altamente productiva. Sin un suministro adecuado de agua, la producción de cosechas aumentará en todo el globo. Ante el calentamiento global asociado con el clima extremo, la agricultura también será adversamente afectada. Esta semana los precios del maíz llegaron a niveles de precio récord, estratosféricos, al conocerse las noticias diarias de las catastróficas inundaciones de Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, y en otros sitios a lo largo del río Mississippi River, y que los agricultores perderán la temporada de siembra debido a la tierra empapada por las inundaciones.
Hasta ahora ni siquiera hemos comenzado a discutir los serios problemas de la contaminación del agua de superficie y del agua subterránea, la privatización de los derechos sobre las aguas, la apropiación de recursos acuáticos por corporaciones, la infraestructura acuática que se derrumba, la mala administración del agua por municipalidades en todo el mundo, el aumento de la inflación global de los productos químicos y los insumos para el tratamiento del agua potable y de las aguas servidas, la creciente demanda, y el aumento de la presión sobre las fuentes existentes de agua a través de crecientes demandas de los consumidores de alimentos intensivos en su uso de agua (es decir carnes, productos lácteos, huevos), y el debilitamiento de las regulaciones gubernamentales para tratar la calidad del agua y el acceso al agua. Al analizar la condición del agua, vemos un futuro bastante sombrío – de más hambre – para los pobres del mundo.
-------- Jo-Shing Yang es autor de “Ecological Planning, Design, and Engineering. Solving Global Water Crises: New Paradigms in Wastewater and Water Treatment. Small and On-Site Systems for Community Water Self-Sufficiency and Sustainability.” Correo electrónico: jsyang@alum.mit.edu">jsyang@alum.mit.edu |
|
Recently published article on AlterNet.org (October 31, 2008) (http://www.alternet.org/workplace/105083/why_big_banks_may_end_up_buying_your_city%27s_public_water_system/)
Why Big Banks May End up Buying Your City's
|
|
Talking about the economics and business of water: Major banks and elite private equity firms are seeing water as the next oil, and they're aggressively entering the water sector buying up everything related to water. They have amassed several billion dollars in their "infrastructure war chests" in preparation for the next tidal wave of infrastructure privatization (including water utilities). This is my most article on this subject matter.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
New article published on AlterNet.org (October 31, 2008) (http://www.alternet.org/workplace/105083/why_big_banks_may_end_up_buying_your_city%27s_public_water_system/)
Why Big Banks May End up Buying Your City's
|
|
Major banks and elite private equity firms all over the world are seeing water as the next oil and they are aggressively entering the water sector. They have amassed several billions dollars in their "infrastructure war chests" in preparation for the next tidal wave of infrastructure (including water utilities) privatization. This is my most recent article on this subject matter.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
New article published on AlterNet.org (October 31, 2008) (http://www.alternet.org/workplace/105083/why_big_banks_may_end_up_buying_your_city%27s_public_water_system/)
Why Big Banks May End up Buying Your City's
|


This article appeared in Counterpunch (an online journal) on June 21-22, 2008 (link: http://www.counterpunch.org/yang06212008.html). One correction: Instead of "In early 2008, the UN Environment Programme published a rather grim world irrigation map to illustrate unsustainable water withdrawals on all continents," should read "In 2005...."
=========================================================================
June 21 / 22, 2008
The Converging Food and Water Crises
Dying of Hunger, Dying of Thirst
By JO-SHING YANG
In recent months worldwide food crises and food riots have dominated newspaper headlines and captured the attention of global media and political leaders as soaring food and commodities prices plunge an estimated 1 billion people worldwide deeper into poverty and on brink of malnourishment and even starvation—then forcing these masses of distressed people onto the streets to protest. Finally world leaders are paying attention to the plight of the chronically poor and now talk of “food crises” that ravage the lives of the desperately poor. By now, most people know that the reasons for higher food prices are higher petroleum prices (which affect oil-based agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides), higher food-transport prices, diversion of corn and other food crops to produce ethanol and other biofuel, more food demand from the emerging middle class of China and India (and their desires to move up the food chain, to eat more meats, eggs, and dairy), and extreme weather events associated with global warming. Few people have linked the food shortages to the water shortages—that is, aside from a few articles written by water analysts and experts (for example, Fred Pearce linking water scarcity to food crises).
After big investment banks and speculators on Wall Street have hiked up food, oil, and other commodity prices, they are eyeing the next major commodity: water. Goldman Sachs is urging investors to focus on high-tech end of the $425 billion global water industry because water is the “petroleum for the next century.” Potential areas of investment for Wall Street include manufacturers or servicers of water-filtration equipment, ultraviolet disinfection, membrane-based desalination technology, automated water meters, and other specialized niches in wastewater reuse (The Telegraph, June 6, 2008). Goldman Sachs also published a graph called “Water sector outperformance relative to S&P500” showing trends from 2000 to 2008, with water-sector index soaring to 400 while S&P500 stagnated at or below the 100 level (values rebased to 100).
There is a converging food and water crisis in the making, with eight extremely troubling and interrelated trends in water, as follows:
Global warming: extreme weather events and their destructive consequences, climate uncertainties, and volatilities in precipitation
Depleting groundwater and aquifers all over the world due to population growth, increasing and wasteful agricultural irrigation, and largely irreversible groundwater pollution
Increasing surface water pollution worldwide which makes existing groundwater unusable without substantial treatment (including global increase in chemical usage, from farm chemicals to industrial chemicals and household products)
Privatization, corporatization, and globalization of water resources (the so-called water grab by large multinational corporate interests)
Crumbling water infrastructure, poor water management by municipalities, and lack of public investment in water and wastewater treatment globally
Global inflation of commodities’ prices and their effects on municipal water and wastewater treatment worldwide
Rising demand for water in agriculture through consumer demand for water-intensive foods higher on the food chain (e.g., meats, eggs, and dairy). It has been estimated that the total global meat supply was 71 million tons in 1961 and 284 million tons in 2007…and rising (the New York Times, 2008).
Declining and weakening of governments’ environmental regulations and enforcement to address the issue of pollution, which means that treating the polluted water to make it potable and usable in agriculture will be costly
Depending on the region being examined, any one or a combination of these factors will affect fresh water supplies, delivery, and treatment in the coming years. They will also affect agriculture and food production for billions of people worldwide. Just focusing on two factors of global warming and aquifer depletion, as follows, gives us enough worries about sustainability and the future of agricultural production.
Some facts:
To produce 1 ton of grain, it takes 1,000 tons of water. Producing chicken takes approximately 32 times more water than growing the same amount of wheat; the pork-to-wheat ratio is 65:1, and beef-to-wheat ratio is somewhere between 100:1 to 200:1.
By 2015, almost half of the world’s population, more than 3 billion people, will live in country that are “water-stressed” and have access to less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year, according to the CIA. Back in 2001, the CIA also predicted that an estimated 80% of water is allocated to agriculture in developing countries, an unsustainable proportion, and by 2015, many countries will be unable to maintain their levels of irrigated agriculture—resulting in a steep reduction of agricultural production. We are already witnessing this trend currently in China and India.
In early 2008, the UN Environment Programme published a rather grim world irrigation map to illustrate unsustainable water withdrawals on all continents.
Worldwide, an estimated 4,400 children under the age of five die each day due to drinking dirty water and poor sanitation, and diarrhea kills five times more children annually than HIV/AIDS, according to the United Nations. With the coming water crises, significantly higher childhood mortality rates can be expected worldwide.
Water is the basis of agriculture—not just in growing food, but also in processing food. Water is the foundation of modern cities and urban sanitation systems—from our indoor plumbing to centralized wastewater-treatment plants. Water is the basis of industries and manufacturing. Water sustains nature and wildlife. In essence, humanity can live without oil—albeit more primitively—but humanity cannot survive without water. Despite its importance, rarely has the issue of water been integrated into our discussions of food crises, except when we briefly talk about global warming and extreme droughts that affect crop-growing regions. Interviewed for the New York Times (June 2, 2008), Barbara Helferrich, a spokeswoman for the European Union’s Environment Directorate, said, “Water will be the environmental issue this year — the problem is urgent and immediate. If you already have water shortages in spring, you know it’s going to be a really bad summer.” A UK-based environment writer Fred Pearce recently wrote that water shortages are a major cause of faltering crop production which results in food shortages: for example, Ukraine, Australia, China, India, and Egypt have been depleting their rivers and groundwater to the point that farmers can no longer irrigate their crops—thus, agricultural output will be reduced. Well-known analyst Lester Brown has been predicting that water shortages will further exacerbate food shortages in many countries.
Goldman Sachs announced water to be the “petroleum for the next century”
So we need to ask the question: what about water in the midst of this precarious global economy and increasingly fragile natural world? How will the shortage and supply volatility of water affect food production and food crises? One similarity between oil and water is that of diminishing supply and rapidly growing demand. With shortages, conflicts and wars arise—this point has been made clear in Michael Klare’s 2002 book Resource Wars. Moreover, many other analysts—from those working for the CIA to those in the United Nations and Forbes magazine—have long predicted water as the major resource in which nations will fight wars over. The Dutch Crown Prince Willem-Alexander said, “Water could become the new oil as a major source of conflict,” during the 2001 World Water Forum in Stockholm. The Crown Prince Willem-Alexander was the previous chairman of the 2001 World Water Forum; he is also the oldest grandson of Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands who was the founder of the elite, highly secretive policy group called the Bilderberg in the 1950s; his mother, Queen Beatrix, is also a member of the Bilderberg and a principal shareholder of the Royal Dutch Shell. The former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali also said, “Water will be more important than oil this century” and that water is the next oil over which nations will fight wars. The late U.S. Senator Paul Simon said, “Nations go to war over oil, but there are substitutes for oil. How much more intractable might wars be that are fought over water, an ever scarcer commodity for which there is no substitute?”
The link between water and food is clear: without water, there can be no irrigated agricultural. According to the Telegraph in June 2008, “A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves, according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman Sachs ‘Top Five Risks’ conference.”
It is widely known that the genocide in Darfur has been exacerbated by competition over water and land resources by Arab nomads and African farmers as global warming-induced droughts aggravated desertification in northern Darfur for two decades. In the near future, will we see “water riots” and “water wars”—or even genocides and conflicts which masqueraded as ethnic/tribal or religious when the real conflict actually erupted over water? What should we be concerned about and what should we do now to avert the coming water crises? Let’s focus on two troubling water crises, that of global warming and depleting aquifers.
Extreme Weather, Climate Uncertainties, and Volatilities in Precipitation
Regardless of the current scientific debates on global warming of whether it is man-made or a natural planetary cycle, one thing is certain among scientists: this climate change is not a temporary anomaly. Global warming will worsen in the next decades. Weather will become more extreme and unpredictable in many parts of the world: for example, in June, we have witnessed catastrophic flooding in Iowa and elsewhere in the Mideast, which devastated the corn planting of 2008. Glaciers will melt at even faster rates, further lowering fresh water supplies in many regions. Precipitation will become more unpredictable—while some parts of the world will get more water through floods and storms, others will suffer reduced groundwater supply and even drought. While analysts have cited “temporary weather anomalies” (Washington Post, May 30, 2008, referring to droughts in Australia) as one reason for the sharp spike in food prices, global warming is not a temporary weather phenomenon afflicting the crop-producing regions of the world. In short, the droughts, floods, storms, hurricanes, and extreme weather patterns all over the globe are not short-term events. Globally, the extreme weather will be further exacerbated by the intensification of global warming in the coming decade. The wild and extreme weather patterns are here to stay—in turn, limiting fresh-water supply and food production in many food-growing regions.
In January 2005, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) published new analyses linking rising global temperature to extreme weather, saying that the area on Earth hit by serious droughts more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s and that widespread drought occurred in western and southern Africa, eastern Australia, much of Asia and Europe, and Canada (Journal of Hydrometerology, 2005). "Droughts and floods are extreme climate events that are likely to change more rapidly than the average climate," says NCAR’s Aiguo Dai. "Because they are among the world's costliest natural disasters and affect a very large number of people each year, it is important to monitor them and perhaps predict their variability."
A few examples of how global warming has affected food production and resource conflicts worldwide are as follows:
One of the most cited examples is Australia, which suffered six straight years of devastating drought and had 98% of its rice production cut and its agricultural production slashed by one-quarter within the past year. In contrast, at the same time American corn and soybean farmers in the Midwest are suffering from floods and too much rain in the planting seasons of spring and summer 2008.
Scientists working with the United Nations have also projected that Australia’s agricultural and forestry production will decline significantly by 2030 due to increases in fires and droughts.
The Horn of Africa is also being crippled by severe droughts, with the poorest in Somalia and Ethiopia facing imminent famine and mass starvation. On the African continent, more than 300 million people already face water scarcity, and water shortages in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise by almost one-third by 2050.
Darfur suffered droughts and conflicts over water and land resources before the conflicts turned lethally ethnic and tribal in nature, from a local resource conflict into a full-blown genocide. In June 2007, UN Environmental Prpgramme (UNep) said that peace in Darfur is nearly impossible unless the issues of environmental destruction were addressed. A lobbying group Justice Africa told the BBC in July 2007 that “the root cause of the conflict [between Arab nomads and black African farmers] is resources—drought and desertification in North Darfur.”
In early June 2008, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proclaimed a statewide drought in California, stating that the 2008 spring was the driest on record and saying, “We must recognize the severity of this crisis we face.” California is a major food-production region of the world with its agricultural exports exceeding $9 billion in 2005.
Desertification is one of the more neglected environmental issues today, which is aggravated by global warming. Desertification is a critical issue because it affects arable land’s productivity and consequently, food production. The United Nations has estimated that more than 250 million people are directed affected by desertification in 110 countries occupying one-third of earth’s surface (this figure includes 135 million in danger of being driven from their land), and one billion people’s livelihood at risk. As 70% of all agricultural drylands are being degraded, they are at risk of desertification, which carries a price tag of U.S.$42 billion a year. Desertification further exacerbates water scarcity and degrades the land to the point that it is no longer productive.
Scientists have forecasted that as global warming heats the planet, the climate will be wetter in some places and drier in others. The worst part of that changing weather and volatile precipitation patterns will leave millions of people without dependable fresh-water supplies for drinking, agricultural irrigation, and hydropower. Global warming spells devastation for most countries’ water and agricultural future. It is clear then that we should expect global warming to decrease long-term freshwater availability, which in turn will also simultaneously lower food production and worsen the food and hunger situation in many developing countries.
A Hungrier Future Due to Our Unsustainable Withdraw of Groundwater
It typically takes 1,000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain. It is estimated that almost 10% of the global food supply (160 million tons of grain) is currently produced using unsustainable practice of overdrawing groundwater according to the USAID. But depleting groundwater is not only a threat to future food production—it is a contributor to sea-level rise. For example, publishing in Hydrogeology Journal, researchers found that the estimated global groundwater withdrawals to be at 750-800 km3/year, and that this massive amount of aquifer depletion may result in seal-level rise:
Unsustainable groundwater withdrawal and aquifer depletion will exacerbate the effects of volatile precipitation patterns on agriculture. Aquifer depletion in a few key grain- and food-producing countries with large populations—namely, the United States, Mexico, China, and India—is briefly summarized as follows:
United States — the most well-known one is the Ogallala/High Plains aquifer (depleting at an estimated 12 billion cubic meters per year, with some areas dropping by more than 100 feet), but aquifer depletion is widespread across the country. In the Pacific Northwest, Columbia River Basalt aquifer of Washington and Oregon has declined by more than 100 feet in several areas. In Tucson and Phoenix areas, water-level declines of between 300 and 500 feet occurred in much of the area. In California, the Antelope Valley’s groundwater level plummeted by more than 300 feet in some areas since the early 1900s, and the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert have seen land subsidence between 1992 and 1999 and past land subsidence linked to water-level reduction of more than 100 feet between the 1950s and the 1990s. Before its real estate boom, Las Vegas had already suffered a water-level plunge of 300 feet in 1999. In Chicago-Milwaukee area, groundwater levels sank by as much as 900 feet under Chicago and eastern Wisconsin. In Houston, Texas, underground water levels fell by some 400 feet, leading to land subsidence of up to 10 feet. The Sparta aquifer under Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee has seen declines of up to 70 feet in some areas. In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, there was a tenfold rise in groundwater pumping between 1930s and 1970, sinking the groundwater level by 200 feet and leading to saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico into several aquifers. Let’s put the importance of U.S. aquifers in context: agricultural export for the United States is estimated at a record-setting $108.5 billion in 2008 (including approximately 63 million tons of corn) according to the USDA.
Mexico — the well-known example is the Mexico City Aquifer (the central section of the metropolitan area has fallen by as much as 8.5 meters, and the city could run out of water in the next decade), but a third of all water used in Mexico comes from aquifers. All grain crops (such as winter wheat and sorghum) in Mexico rely on irrigation using aquifer water. In Guanajuato, an agricultural state, the water table is plummeting by more than 2 meters a year. According to the USAID, Mexico is depleting its groundwater reserves exceeding 3 meters a year in many of its main agricultural areas. Mexico is located along the same latitudes as the Sahara Desert; half of the country is so arid that on average, Mexico has less drinking water per capita than Egypt and 60% less water than it did 50 years ago.
China — China has many serious water problems and they have been well-documented by numerous analysts. A decade ago, analysts have reported that China’s Yellow River went from not reaching the sea for 15 days in 1972 to 226 days in 1997. The Yellow River supplies water to 15% of China’s agricultural land and more than 150 million people; the river is so polluted that an estimated one-third of fish species in the river have gone extinct. Groundwater is another major problem: According to researchers, the Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain is one of the largest aquifer systems in the world and occupies extensive tracts of Hai River and catchments of Huai and Yellow river systems and beyond; but it, like other aquifers in northeastern China, has many problems: (1) falling groundwater table in shallow aquifers; (2) declining water levels in deeper aquifers; (3) saltwater intrusion and aquifer salination attributable to overpumping; and (4) aquifer pollution from uncontrolled and reckless dumping of sewage and industrial wastewater (Foster et al., Hydrogeology Journal, 2004). Lester Brown and most China analysts take an extremely grim view of China’s water situation—thus China’s food-production capability and its need to import large amounts of grains and other foodstuffs from the global market.
India — Like China, India also faces a long list of water problems, from supply and demand to access and quality. India’s falling harvests can be attributable to droughts and falling groundwater levels. Daniel Pepper wrote a goods article linking Asia’s food crisis to the lack of water and the millions of farmers in India that overdraw the groundwater: one example he cited was that in the 1970s, Indian farmers had only 200,000 electric water pumps, today they own 12 million electric water pumps and 8 million diesel water pumps. Lester Brown also wrote about Tamil Nadu have more than 62 million people but with 95% of wells going dry due to rapidly falling water tables. Additionally, water tables in India are dropping by 1 to 3 meters annually in some parts, with water tables in Punjab, India’s breadbasket, plummeting by a whopping 1 meter per year.
Bangladesh — the groundwater levels have plunged almost 3 meters due to upstream dams and diversions of the Ganges River. Bangladesh is simultaneously afflicted by rising sea level, catastrophic floods, and depleting aquifers—all three severely affect its agricultural productivity (its existing production is already less than the global average and there are worries that its food production is not sustainable even at the current level).
Water is integral to highly productive irrigated agriculture. Without an adequate water supply, crop production will be diminished globally. With global warming-associated extreme weather, agriculture will be adversely affected as well. This week, as we hear the daily news of the catastrophic floods of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and elsewhere along the Mississippi River, that farmers will miss this corn-planting season due to flood-soaked land, corn prices reached record-high, stratospheric price levels.
So far we haven’t begun to discuss the serious problems of surface-water and groundwater pollution, privatization of water rights, water-resource grabbing by corporations, the collapsing water infrastructure, poor water management by municipalities worldwide, rising global inflation of chemicals and inputs of drinking-water and wastewater treatment, the rising demand and increasing pressure on existing water sources via soaring consumer demands for water-intensive foods (i.e., meats, dairy, eggs), and weakening governmental regulations to address water quality and water access. By analyzing the state of water, we can see a rather grim future—that of a hungrier one—for the world’s poor.
Jo-Shing Yang is the author of “Ecological Planning, Design, and Engineering. Solving Global Water Crises: New Paradigms in Wastewater and Water Treatment. Small and On-Site Systems for Community Water Self-Sufficiency and Sustainability.” E-mail: jsyang@alum.mit.edu">jsyang@alum.mit.edu">jsyang@alum.mit.edu