INTRODUCTION

This study is an analysis of the likely outcomes arising from the presidential and legislative elections to be held in the Republic of Mali in April 2002. As such, however, it is not solely centred upon the likely candidates and interested parties and the issues they will have to deal with. It is also an appraisal of the emergence and maintenance of viable democratic institutions and an enthusiastic participatory democracy. To look at the future of national politics, it is also necessary to look into the past, and outside the narrow confines of national borders, to integrate domestic issues with regional and international developments.

The first section deals with Mali's past in two ways: Firstly, locating Mali's civic and political culture as rooted in distant history and long-term trends, especially significant as the governments of Mali's Third Republic base present progress squarely upon a perception of common heritage and shared culture. Secondly, in the post-independence state, where several key themes can be seen to be politically significant. The present political anatomy and state of play is a historical product, and must be understood as such in order to speculate upon the future.

The second section examines the economic foundations of the state. Mali in the global economic order relies upon a few undiversified and vulnerable sectors, and the implications of this are investigated with respect to state revenues and capacity. Environmental degradation and population growth are also considered as factors, especially the inherent dangers in underproviding for the youth of the nation. Additionally, though, there are causes for optimism amidst the relative underdevelopment of the nation, in the strategies and creative responses by Malians to their economic situation.

In the third section, the domestic political environment since the removal of the Traoré dictatorship is taken apart in terms of institution-building, the resolution of the Azouad conflict, regional devolution and human rights. Developments in all these fields have taken place on a foundation of local social capital and on a wave of popular will to change ‘from below', and in all these areas a remarkable amount has been achieved with very little in the way of material resources.

Fourthly, the international perspective is taken into account. This is manifest globally in such issues as the interest of the international community in supporting continuing democratic and accountable government. Within the West African sub-region it also involves the relationship between Mali's national interests and its stake in deepening regional economic integration and co-operation on matters such as peacekeeping.

After the generally positive story told in the previous sections, the fifth part outlines some reasons for caution and a number of issues which may be catalysts for trouble. The greatest potential problem which emerges is not any single political issue but instead the danger of loss of faith in the democratic institutions as a whole.

Lastly, the likely contenders, issues and outcomes of the 2002 ballots are suggested, together with the constraints within which the new administration will have to operate.

The study will tie together to point to the overarching conclusion that, more than any person or party, the electoral process must be the clear winner, in order for the ‘work in progress' of Malian popular democracy to stay on course.