In November 2005, the Vivid Picture Project presented the ROC Council
with The New Mainstream Food and Farming System: A Vivid Picture of
California's Food System in 2030. This report outlines what a
sustainable food system would look like in the next generation, and
proposes ideas for achieving it. To read The New Mainstream please
follow the link below.
The New Mainstream: A Sustainable Food Agenda for California
The New Mainstream report is a narrative overview of the entire work of
The Vivid Picture Project. It is a distillation of information and
ideas taken from the projects 22 white papers.
What follows is an annotated bibliography of all the VP research, along with links to the white papers.
The New Mainstream Supporting Research
1. Sustainable Food Systems: Working Towards a Fundamental Solution (8pg.)
Brief paper that uses systems thinking exercises to map (both
graphically and in text) the links and loops diagramming: 1. Model
illustrating the limits to growth of the current conventional food and
Ag system in the USA. 2. Model illustrating the limits to growth of the
current modern sustainable food and Ag industry in the USA. 3. Model
illustrating the suggested intervention point (building broad alliances
based on opportunity-based criteria to reinforce sustainability values)
to create a shared strategic solution.
2. What Values Influence Stakeholder Perceptions of a Sustainable Food and Farming Industry for California? (28pg.)
Longer paper which explains methodology and findings of a series of
interviews with key CA food system stakeholders that suggest a set of
values for a sustainable food system for CA in 2030. These interviews
are the foundation of the Vivid Picture values. Findings include
detailed explanations of the VP's' five "core sustainability" values,
and the six "bridge" values. Includes in-depth explanation of each
value, including the subset (or node) values that fall under each of
the eleven identified VP values as well as quotes from interviewees
explaining/testifying the stated values. These values provide the
framework for the rest of the VP work.
3. The California Food System in Numbers: A Fact Sheet (6pg.)
Fact sheets outlining (in numbers) various components of California's
food system, including detailed current numbers about the states
eaters, food outlets, institutions, manufacturing, wholesalers, and
producers.
4. Current Issues and Trends Connected to the Vivid Picture Goals for a Sustainable Food System (40pg.)
This paper addresses each of the 22 Vivid Picture project goals for a
sustainable food system. Each goal is followed by a section overview
introducing some key facts and issues currently connected to the goal,
and provides rationale for the selection of the goals while identifying
some of the systemic barriers to their achievement. This article
contains a huge amount of factual information about the current state
of the CA food system, specifically about where and how it is currently
falling short in light of the VP's goals towards sustainability.
5. Finding Food in California: Local Gains, Systemic Losses (8pg.)
This short paper sets the context for the next paper - Farm and Food
Economy Profiles for Selected Regions of California. This paper is an
economic and historical analysis that looks at past and present phases
of prosperity and decline in CA farming systems in order to suggest
sustainable alternatives. Focus is on farm and food economies of three
diverse geographies: 1. The state of CA. 2. Ventura County 3. The
Sacramento metropolitan area - including El Dorado, Placeer,
Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba counties. Compares the net cash
outflow from CA agriculture to CA's overall net food inflow to
illustrate the current state of CA food system as import dependant. The
paper illustrates some of the subsequent negative effects and losses as
well as briefly suggesting relevant opportunities of creating a
sustainable alternative system for CA.
6. Farm and Food Economy Profiles for Selected Regions of California (20pg)
This paper contains fact sheets that outline current economic
information about the food and farming economies of: 1. The Sacramento
metropolitan area. 2. Ventura county. 3. The entire state of
California. Outlines economic trends around agricultural production
costs, farm production losses/gains, labor and input expenses, cash
receipts, farm subsidies, eater consumption, public sector and
institutional food markets, and consumer markets. These numbers are
repeated for each scale - local (Ventura Co.), regional (Sacramento
area), and statewide (all of CA).
7. The Impact of Population Shifts on the Food System in California in 2030 (7pg)
This paper identifies factual information about eaters in the
California food system today and what, given this information, can
reasonably be assumed about California's eaters in 2030. It discusses
the expected population shifts of the next twenty-five years and the
subsequent impacts on food and farming parts of the states food
system. Includes information on projected population demographics,
food expenditures, health, food outlet choices, and consumer
preferences for sustainable foods. Outlines opportunities in
demographic change in CA that could be leveraged to build a sustainable
food economy for the state over the next 25 years.
8. Estimating Spatially Explicit Population Distribution and Urban Area Expansion in California for the Year 2030 (14pg)
A technical paper evaluating three scenarios of California's potential
population growth, distribution and urban area expansion: 1. A scenario
given current trends in densities and urban area expansion 2. A smart
growth scenario that encourages higher densities and preservation of
specific land features such as riparian areas and wetlands 3. A smart
growth scenario that focuses on higher densities coupled with an
emphasis on protecting important farmland types. Outlines effects of
each scenario on the landscape with an emphasis on effects of expanded
urban footprints or greater urban densities on both the production and
consumption components of California's future food system. Scenario
development methodology is explained in depth. Scenarios are compared
and contrasted in light of overall VP goals.
9. Agricultural Lands Available for Production in 2030 (9pg)
Using data from paper #8, Estimating Spatially Explicit Population
Distribution and Urban Area Expansion in California for the Year 2030,
this paper assesses the availability of agricultural lands in 2030
according to two different scenarios. 1. Business as Usual Scenario,
amount of Ag land that would be available in the future in land
development and current practices occur unabated. 2. A Vivid Picture
Scenario, amount of Ag land that would be available in the future with
smart growth policies limiting urban expansion throughout the state and
that the conservation of important ecosystems and wildlife habitats
takes place. Contains fact sheets for each scenario, explanation of
methodology, and brief explanation of Vivid Picture scenario findings.
Useful tool for understanding CA's future land use, urban growth, smart growth, wildlife conservation, and water use.
10. Agro-ecological Zone Analysis and Evaluation of Correlated Crops in 2030 in California (15pg.)
This technical paper applies an agro-ecological zone (AEZ) analysis to
California's landscape in order to develop a spatially specific
(mapped) understanding of the state's zones of agricultural suitability
and productivity. Employs statistical analyses of climate, topography,
soils, and water to define AEZ types that provide information on
geophysical factors, such as temperature and precipitation, upon food
production. Results from this AEZ analysis can be used to develop
future scenarios of eater and/or market demand and each zones
production possibility in light of that demand. Results can also be
used to assess the implications of shifts in any of the underlying
geophysical factors, such as water or climate. The paper examines the
possibility of one such scenario; it applies climate change research to
the state's agricultural landscape and finds that under that scenario
the quality of the state's farmland exhibits significant degradation.
11. Interactions of Food System Types in Localized Value Chains in California: Implications for a Sustainable Food System in 2030 (63pg.)
This paper provides a framework for evaluating the consequences of
different scenarios for the entire CA food system. The paper describes
the development of two scenarios: 1. A Business as Usual scenario,
based on empirical data specific to food system types and calibrated to
mimic the current day system. 2. A Vivid Picture scenario, which
adjusts a discrete set of parameters based on the goals of the Vivid
Picture project. The paper describes the scenario development process,
methodology, and results, as well as its limitations. It does not
describe the strategies that would facilitate the actualization of the
scenarios developed. It attempts, through a series of specially
specific analyses, to understand how eaters, food outlets,
manufactures, distributors, and producers might be organized on the CA
landscape in order to achieve the positive social, environmental, and
economic impacts needed to achieve a sustainable food system for CA in
2030. Variations in scenarios are based on specific parameters that
define value chain interactions within the food system. The paper
explains the framework and methodology used to evaluate such complex
relationships and discusses many of the findings resulting from
different scenarios expressed through the arrangement of different food
system types on the landscape. The paper is broken into several
sections. The first goes over the background of value chains and why
this research on value chains was conducted. The second section is a
breakdown of methodology with particular attention paid to the
definition of different food system types. The third section details
some of the outcomes resulting form value chain analyses of the
different scenarios. And the final section provides some examples of
some of the food system types uses as analogs to define
characteristics. This paper is in draft form and should be considered a
working document.
12. Food Access in California Today (11pg.)
This paper provides a picture of food access in California today, in
order to help set a course for universal food access for all California
eaters by 2030. The study measures the distance, by roads, between
eaters and full-service grocery stores to provide a measure of
California eaters' access to fresh, nutritional food. The paper offers
a discussion of all the first stage findings and describes the analysis
used to create this picture of access. It pinpoints some of the
current barriers to access, and suggests practical applications for the
data as well as recommendations for action. Contains useful graphics
breaking down current day access by both total population and urban
population.
13. A New Architecture for the California Food System (7pg.)
This paper offers a vision of a new architecture for the CA food system
from ROC Council and Business Advisory Group member Jim Cochran. The
paper describes a new system, which would substantially increase the
availability of high-quality, locally produced food through the
creation of a new network of retailers and food service outlets
sourcing from a broad array of small and mid-sized producers in an
efficient manner.
14. Outlining a Change Agenda #1 (21pg.)
This paper presents a set of food system levers, strategies, and
tactics based on feedback from 55 trade and public interest advisors,
most of who were part of the larger on-going Vivid Picture project
dialogue. The goal of the process was to tap into the ideas and
experience of the VP's diverse trade and public policy advisors in
order to begin to construct a Change Agenda that could move CA. towards
the Vivid Picture vision by 2030. Of the 55 interviews, 24 were
conducted with individuals who are executive managers or owners of
farms, ranches, fisheries, and food businesses. 31 of the participants
were public interest contributors. The paper outlines the results of
this qualitative interview process to uncover opportunities-based
market, policy, and communications strategies. The first section
addresses the methodology used in the research process. The next two
sections describe shared and divergent perspectives of the
participants. The original interview tool is included as an appendix to
the document.
15. Outlining a Change Agenda #2 (22pg.)
This paper presents a compilation of policy and economic development
initiative ideas collected through interviews with 30 opinion leaders
who are currently engaged in food system issues in CA. The qualitative
interview process behind this paper included perspectives from the
fields of agriculture, environment, nutrition, and labor. The
interviewee list was designed to compliment the perspectives and areas
of expertise of the food system leaders interviewed for outlining a
Change Agenda #1. After a brief explanation of methodology, the paper
outlines 8 major themes. Each theme is followed by some excerpts from
interviews and then a more detailed list of possible action items. A
summary outline of the ideas is included as Appendix B.
16. Proposed Indicators for Sustainable Food Systems (118pg.)
This paper covers the methodology and findings of the Vivid Picture
project teams effort to develop a set of indicators for a sustainable
food system for CA. An indicator can be described as, "a way to
measure", or "something used to show the condition of the system".
Indicator data are the actual quantitative measurements or observations
that addresses the underlying intent of the indicators. This paper
explains the methodology of the VP teams indicator selection process
and then outlines the Vivid Picture goals and all of the identified
indicators for each of those goals. Following that, the bulk of the
paper provides detailed description of each of the recommended
indicators including details on its trend data, source information,
data particulars, and strengths and limitations. Each VP goal is
listed and a narrative describing the selection process for the goal's
indicators is provided.
17. Cooperatives, A California Analysis: An Old Structure for a New Economy (17 pg.)
This paper explores limits and opportunities of cooperatives in
California's current economic arena. It begins with a description of
the basic principals of cooperatives, moves through a brief synopsis of
the obstacles impeding cooperatives such as RGA and Diamond Walnut
Growers, and proposes business practices that may help cooperatives
overcome organizational and market hurdles. It concludes with four
case studies of businesses (three agricultural co-ops and one retail
co-op), both in the mainstream commodity and niche industries which
provide examples of healthy and prosperous businesses to model in
moving the CA. food system towards sustainability.
18. Laying a Foundation for a Local Food System in California: A Survey of Policy and Legal Impacts (19 pg.)
This paper looks at current trends of corporate consolidation of the
food and farming industry and some of the most substantial benefits of
establishing local food systems in light of those trends. The paper
then lays out the international, federal, state, and local laws and
policies that may impede or promote efforts to establish such local
food systems. Barriers stem from international trade law, federal
ant-trust law, and state policies and laws, including laws governing
states agricultural cooperatives, and local ordinances and
initiatives. The paper then examines some government laws and programs
as well as some private actions that serve as example components of a
local food system. It concludes with local, statewide, and federal
public policy and private sector recommendations for developing model
local food systems.
19. An Assessment of Market Viability for Third-party Certification and Eco-label for California (26 pg.)
This paper explores the possible strategy of having a third-party
certification system and eco-label that verifies and promotes good
social and environmental practices in food production in California.
The paper investigates the market viability and strategy for the
introduction of a third-party certification system and eco-label by
exploring: lessons learned from other eco-label/certification efforts
around the world, different certification/labeling programs that are
running in CA. or are expected to move here, potential institutional
markets for a new third-party certification of food production, and the
nexus between government policy and third-party certification
programs. In considering a strategy and approach for the California
market, the paper incorporates lessons from the experience of Food
Alliance, a third party eco-labeling organization that is interested in
entering the CA market.
20. Summary Input from the Roots of Change Fund Workforce Workgroup (7pg.)
This paper summarizes the ROC Workforce Workgroups recommendations
regarding the creation of "meaningful livelihoods" for workers in
California's food and farming industry. The paper contains three
sections. 1. Identification of current problems for the food system
workforce, with a focus on agricultural labor. 2. Investigation or
possible root causes of the identified problems. 3. Suggested
fundamental solutions to identified problems. Provides a simple and
very clear explanation of problems facing CA. agricultural workers
today, and suggested leaver points for facilitating fundamental change.
Focus is entirely on agricultural labor.
21. Summary Input from the Roots of Change Fund Sustainable Food Business Leaders (6 pg.)
This paper summarizes the input from three meetings of a subgroup of
the ROC Fund Sustainable Food Business Leaders workgroup. It outlines
key issues that emerged regarding challenges and opportunities for
moving the sustainable food industry from niche to mainstream. The
topics covered include: retail models, distribution models, ownership
models, new financial infrastructures, and attracting and retaining the
best and brightest workforce. While this paper is not a comprehensive
investigation of any of these topics, it contains important insights
from private sector food leaders.
22. Marine Food Resources in the California Food System in 2030 (14 pg.)
This paper analyzes the state of California's current marine resources
as a framework for understanding the limits and opportunities for
marine fisheries to provide food for California's people in 2030. The
paper is broken into three sections: 1. "Charting the Trends in
California's Marine Resources", in which it presents the overall trends
in marine resources production in CA over the last century. Focus is on
trends in landings, ex-vessel values, number of fishing vessels, gear
types, and fishing regulations. 2. "Scenarios: Marine Food Resources
in 2030", explores the demand-side conditions that may exist in CA in
2030. 3. "Opportunities for Sustainable Production", discusses
possible opportunities for providing sustainable sources of fish to
California's people.
23. Overview of Processes and Tools Developed in Support of the Quantitative Analysis for the Vivid Picture Project (14 pg.)
As part of the Vivid Picture project, the Ecotrust team conducted a
comprehensive quantitative analysis about current conditions and
plausible future scenarios. The team developed a framework to support
the plethora of analyses required, and constructed a set of tools to
facilitate processing and analysis of data. This paper outlines the
analytic framework and the individual analyses and supporting tools
that function within the framework. Furthermore, the paper describes
how the tools interact and identifies additional sources of information
about individual analyses. The framework itself can be thought of as an
expert system, where a series of different data, assumptions and
applications interact to help the Ecotrust team quantify differences
resulting from different scenarios. At the core of this analytical
approach is the placement of value chains on the land |
