Energy Alternatives

The Problem: The World is Running out of Cheap Oil

Reflections by Mike Seymour

• “By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day.” -- From a speech delivered by Dick Cheney in 1999, while he was still CEO of Halliburton Co.
• Using the known amount of available oil reserves and the present rate of consumption, British Petroleum conservatively forecasts that we’ll use up most of the easily recoverable oil within around 40 years.
• During the 1970’s oil shortages, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple.
• A barrel of standard crude oil traded on the NYMEX in September, 2003 for under $25/barrel, but by August, 2006 it had topped at a record price of $78.40/barrel.
• Average gasoline retail prices in the U.S. reached an all-time high of $3.04 per gallon in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
• The average retail price of a litre of petrol in the United Kingdom was 86.4p (pence) on October 19, 2006, which equates to $6.13/gallon. 

 

I was living in New York City in 1973 at the time of the oil embargo by OPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Countries) which said they would no longer ship petroleum to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt. At the same time, OPEC members used their leverage to set prices for world oil, and prices for oil tripled, with huge increases and long lines at gas stations around the U.S. and the industrialized world. The impact on the economies of the developed world was immediate and severe. The New York Stock Exchange lost almost $100 billion of value in six weeks, and industrialized nations saw sudden inflation as well as economic recession.  In response, there was a nationwide call for energy conservation in the U.S. A national maximum speed limit of 55 mph was set, as well as the establishment of a year-round daylight saving time. The crisis also cultivated greater interest in alternative, renewable energy.

 

The oil shocks of the 1970’s give the U.S. some idea of the chaos that is possible when oil supplies are reduced, and what could potentially lie in store for the world in the next half century which will see the end of cheap oil. “What’s the big deal?” one might ask.  To appreciate how huge a change this will bring about, we need to take a closer look at how much the world economy and our daily lives depend on oil. 

 

 

The Birth of an Industrialized World

To a very large degree, modern civilization as we know it today, and the huge population growth from the mid-1800’s onward, owe themselves to the discovery and production of oil. Our ability to tap gigantic oil reserves in the U.S. and other parts of the world (and discover a resource that was free except for the exploration and drilling costs…) was a bonanza that helped propel American industry and the current living standard in industrialized countries.

 

Think of oil and gas as stored sunlight, the outcome from millions of years of geologic activity.

Something in the order of 500 million years ago, there was only simple life in the seas, and these shallow seas would be rich with organic, living organisms. As life that's floating in the sea dies, it falls to the bottom of the ocean, and these organisms become the source of our oil and gas. When they're buried with the accumulating sediment and reach an adequate temperature (above 50-70° Centigrade, depending on the organism), they start to cook. This process changes them into the liquid hydrocarbons that move and migrate, and that will become our oil and gas reservoir.

 -------------------broken image link here-----------------

But, of course, oil and gas supplies are not infinite.  In fact, relative to our consumption, which is increasing at a rapid rate, oil supplies are in decline. U.S. domestic oil production peaked in 1970 at about 10 million barrels/day, and has since declined a little bit each year, leaving the U.S.  more reliant on foreign oil and less secure as a result. The chart by Richard P. Duncan presented to the Geological society of America at its 2000 Summit in Reno, Nevada shows one possible scenario for oil production which reaches a peak around 2006 and then goes into decline to pre-1980 levels.  At the same time, oil demand will be on the rise, boosted as well by the growing economies of China and India, which did not figure prominently into the oil economy of the pre-1980 period.

 

Oil Dependency, Energy Security & Humanity’s Future

 

“I’ll just drive less, or get a hybrid car.” If only the answer were this simple. But it’s not.  Oil figures into much of our lives, including our clothes, medicines, electricity, factories and transportation of goods. Many pesticides are made from oil, and our food supply is completely dependent on petroleum to power farm machinery and the trucks that bring goods to markets. Manufacturing plants in the U.S. rely on oil or gas-powered electricity.

 

And it’s not just that our economy is so intertwined with the oil, but that our supply of oil is not secure since it is in the hands of other countries that are often politically unstable. The U.S., for example, imports about 12 million barrels of oil a day, accounting for about ¼ of world oil consumption. Meanwhile, it has less than 5% of the world’s population. OPEC countries account for around 42% of world oil, with 68% of these supplies coming from the Persian Gulf, believed to have 2/3 of the world’s known oil reserves.  Foreign policy blunders, like the American involvement in the Iraq war—which has drawn criticism from around the world, especially from Muslim countries—makes our energy futures less dependable. The U.S. has made an enemy of itself with other large OPEC producers, one of which is Venezuela whose populist but volatile President, Hugh Chavez, is strongly anti-American. Because of corruption in Nigeria where oil monies are not fairly shared with the communities where the oil is extracted, a rebel insurgency (The Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force) has attacked wells and pipelines in the oil-rich Niger Delta, sending shockwaves through the oil industry, and causing momentary peaks in oil costs.

 

The critical energy situation of the next half century has called forth enough doom-sayers and pollyannas that it’s often hard to sort out a reasonable forecast of what’s to come. On the doom side you have people like Richard Duncan, Director of the Institute on Energy and Man, who see oil as the backbone of the short, 100-year civilization between 1930 and 2025, and a post-industrial-phase beyond 2100.  He calls this the Olduvai Gorge phase, referring to the prehistoric human findings anthropologist Dr. Richard Leaky discovered in Tanzania, Africa in an area know as Olduvai Gorge. Duncan uses this metaphor to suggest nothing short of humanity being thrown back to another stone age once the age of peak oil is over. To learn more, visit http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/Olduvai.htm.

 

On the other side of the argument are people like Paul Watson and Alex Jones (Prison Planet.com) who claim that “…Peak oil is a scam designed to create artificial scarcity and jack up prices while giving the state an excuse to invade our lives and order us to sacrifice our hard-earned living standards.” They claim that creating hype about oil shortages (http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm), conditioning the public to higher prices, and suppressing legislation favoring alternative energy research are all ways for the wealthy oil companies to get richer. Others with less of a conspiratorial tone argue that shortages in oil reserves are overblown. They say that there is plenty of recoverable oil from places like Iraq, or the Canadian Tar sands, a 250 mile radius of Canada’s Athanabasca wilderness. Just here alone, the tar sands are believed to hold 315 billion barrels of recoverable oil--“enough to supply all U.S. import needs for the next 50 years,” according to a report by Forbes Magazine. Other reserves now on federal lands which are restricted for oil exploration include an estimated 59 billion barrels in the coastal waters off the lower 48 states, in the west mountains and in Alaska. 

 

I look at this practically, based on my own experience.  Just to give you an anecdote, I drove from Monterey, California to New York City in 1965, passing through Elko, Nevada early on day 2 of our trip, and paid $0.17/gallon for gas—the lowest price I have ever paid for gas anywhere. Back home, that would have cost about double, or $0.35/gallon.  Just last week I put about 10 gallons of gas into my Nissan for $27.80, or roughly sixteen times as much as what I paid 40 years ago. 

 

Get the picture? Oil, and life in the modern world, is going to get a lot more expensive. And the road to energy security promises to be a bumpy one, with perhaps more wars, embargoes, long gas lines, or worse.

 

But out of this we can hope to find the incentive to invest more towards energy security for the world through the development of renewable, energy alternatives.

 

Some Solutions: Energy Alternatives

 

Current research, development, and implementation of energy alternatives have been extensive, but not to the point that any one or a combination of energy sources could adequately take the place of carbon-based fuels, like oil, gas, and coal.  A new energy infrastructure will need to emerge over the next 40-50 years, and will require far greater foresight and emphasis than it has been given to be realized, especially in the United States.  Other countries, like many in the European Union, are far ahead of America in their use of alternative energy sources, like wind power. It is likely that oil and coal will remain important sources of energy, although they will decline as a percent of total energy generation, and that a combination of alternatives will make up the rest. Some of the better known sources of renewable energy include solar, wind, biomass, ocean thermal energy, and hydrogen.

 

Solar Energy                                                                                                                         

 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory                                                http://www.nrel.gov/solar/

 

The sun's heat and light provide an abundant source of energy that can be harnessed in many ways. There are a variety of technologies that have been developed to take advantage of solar energy. These include concentrating solar power systems, passive solar heating and daylighting, photovoltaic systems, solar hot water, and solar process heat and space heating/cooling. Solar power can be used in both large-scale applications and in smaller systems for the home. Businesses and industry can diversify their energy sources, improve efficiency, and save money by choosing solar technologies for heating and cooling, industrial processes, electricity, and water heating. Homeowners can also use solar technologies for heating and cooling and water heating, and may even be able to produce enough electricity to operate "off-grid" or to sell the extra electricity to the utilities, depending on local programs. The use of passive solar heating and daylighting design strategies can help both homes and commercial buildings operate more efficiently and make them more pleasant and comfortable places in which to live and work. Although solar energy is expensive today, there are more than 10,000 homes in the U.S. which are now powered entirely by solar energy, and 200,000 homes in the U.S. use some type of photovoltaic solar technology. This is often used to heat water, for example. Alternatives like solar power benefit from government support, as in the case of Spain where a new building code taking effect in 2007 will require that all new or renovated residential and commercial buildings must be equipped with photovoltaic panels for a portion of their electrical needs.

Wind Power  

 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory                                                http://www.nrel.gov/wind/

 

Wind power is one of the most cost-competitive renewables today. Its long-term technical potential is believed to be five times greater than current global energy consumption, or 40 times current electricity demand.. Wind is a clean, inexhaustible energy resource that can generate enough electricity to power millions of homes and businesses. Wind energy is one of the fastest-growing forms of electricity generation in the world. The United States can currently generate more than 11,600 megawatts (MW) of electricity from the wind, which is enough to power 2.5 million average American homes. Industry experts predict that, with proper development, wind energy could provide 20% of this nation's energy needs.

As the chart above from the World Wind Energy Association shows, the world currently has installed wind-powered generators producing about 74  thousand megawatts of energy, with an estimate that will more than double in four years. Country leaders in wind power include Denmark, Spain, and Germany.  

 

Bio-Energy

 

Bio-energy includes a wide range of earth materials that can generate energy either by direct burning (biomass) or conversion to biofuels, such as biodiesel and ethanol. There is also biogas which is generated from methane and biodegradable material. Biomass energy is not as clean as some other energy sources, and is not always easily renewed. It may be possible, however, to offset or eliminate this difference by planting fast growing trees and grasses as fuel supplies.

 

For example, a newly developed grass that grows 13 feet tall could be used as a relatively clean source of alternative energy. The grass, known as giant Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), is a hybrid developed from an Asian variety. It produces about the same amount of carbon dioxide when burned as it is able to remove from the air when it grows. Miscanthus is also easy to grow. It requires little water and minimal fertilizer and thrives in untilled fields, said doctoral student Emily Heaton at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Another exciting but controversial biofuel alternative involves a process known as thermal conversion, or TCP. Unlike conventional biofuels, TCP can convert practically any type of organic matter into high quality petroleum with water as the only byproduct, proponents claim. It remains to be seen, however, whether Changing World Technologies, the company that patented the process, can produce enough oil for it to become a viable fuel alternative.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)                                                                      

National Renewable Energy Laboratory                                     http://www.nrel.gov/otec/what.html

Imagine an energy source that utilizes only the temperature difference at different depths of seawater. OTEC generates electricity by a method that involves pumping cold water from the ocean depths (sometimes as deep as a mile or more) to the surface and extracting energy from the flow of heat between the cold water and the warm surface water. The beauty of this technology is the great availability of area to do this, as oceans cover 70% of the Earth’s surface and surface water is a natural solar collector.

Wave Power

Energetech                                                                                    

 http://www.energetech.com.au/

Australia’s first commercial wave-generated power station started to supply electricity and drinking water to homes south of Sydney, Australia, thanks to new wave-power technology built by energy company Energetech. Lying about 100 yards offshore, the station generates electricity when waves wash into a funnel facing the ocean, driving air through a pipe and into a turbine capable of pumping 500 kilowatts of clean power each day, enough for 500 homes. The $5 million floating plant can also desalinate 2,000 litres of salt water each day, providing drinkable water for the drought-parched area. Interest for larger systems has come from Hawaii, Spain, South Africa, Mexico, Chile and both coasts of the U.S.

Hydrogen & Fuel Cells                                                                                                               

 

U.S. Department of Energy                              http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/

 

Hydrogen is the most plentiful element on Earth and is found in combination with oxygen in water, and in organic matter including living plants, petroleum, coal, natural gas and other hydrocarbon compounds. The great attraction of hydrogen is that, once isolated, it is a clean burning fuel that produces neither carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) nor toxic emissions and can be used for electricity production, transportation, and other energy needs. Many see a movement to a hydrogen economy as the ultimate solution to the environmental and security problems associated with fossil fuels. However, before hydrogen can be used as fuel, it must first be extracted from hydrogen-bearing compounds either through electrolysis or high temperature reformation of organic compounds like coal. Many of the extraction processes can create substantial pollution, and are expensive. So, for hydrogen to be truly pollution-free, the extraction process must be pollution-free. If the problems of extracting hydrogen can be solved in a cost effective manner, and if technologies such as fuel cells can be made cost effective, then hydrogen has the potential to provide clean, alternative energy for a number of uses, including lighting, heating, cooling, and transportation.

 

Energy Conservation

U.S. Department of Energy

http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer/

 

Energy conservation is probably the quickest solution to a portion of our national and global issues around energy costs and shortages. We can do many things at home and our workplaces to save energy: turning thermometers down, changing out to lower energy light bulbs, like compact fluorescent, driving our cars more slowly, keeping our tires inflated to the right pressure, or shopping using our own cloth bags. This can add up to a lot of energy saved. The U.S. Department of Energy website (above) has a lot of tips for saving energy, as will most of your local utility companies.

 

What You Can Do

Steps You Can Take

1. Sign up for your electric utility’s Green Power program if they have one.
2. Refer to the home energy conservation measures at the following Colorado State website pertaining to home heating, hot water generation, how to use major appliances, minimization of lights and exchanging bulbs for compact fluorescent, proper insulation, energy efficient windows and the like.  http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/consumer/10610.html
3. Reduce your personal care mileage by taking public transport once in a while, ride-sharing, avoiding unnecessary trips, driving at or slightly below posted speed limits, and keeping your car in good shape with tires well inflated.
4. Write your senators and congressman and ask for more investment in alternative energy and higher federal mileage standards for autos and trucks.

Resources

Life After the Crash and Richard Duncan’s Peak Oil Analysis, offers a pessimistic scenario about peak oil.                                                                                     http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/              http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm

InfoWars.com, debunking peak oil as a myth http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm

Energy Bulletin, more middle of the road analysis on peak oil. http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

U.S. Department of Energy has suggestions on how to increase mileage in your car.                                                   http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/drive.shtml

Colorado State University Cooperative Extension has suggestions on home energy conservation. http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/consumer/10610.html

National Renewable Energy Laboratory is an excellent site for information on renewables.                                                     http://www.nrel.gov

The Power of Green: The Greening of Geopolitics, isa short video segment by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman who speaks about the critical need to move toward a scalable, affordable green power system worldwide before it’s too late to stem the global warming pollution from CO2 gases coming from a carbon-based economy. Visit http://video.on.nytimes.com/, and then do a search on either the terms “The Power of Green” or “The Greening of Geopolitics.”