Community Preparation for Pandemic Flu and Other Disasters
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Pandemic flu? What does flu have to do with WiserEarth?
Pandemic flu may not have quite the cachet of global warming, nor quite the devastating long term effects, but millions dead in six weeks is pretty serious by anyone's measure. It is worth doing something to reduce its impact, should it strike. And if the measures undertaken strengthen grassroots democracy at the neighborhood level - as they must if neighborhoods are made the principal actors in the preparation drama - then helping prepare for pandemic flu and other disasters will increase communities' abilities to engage in a whole range
of activities of interest to everyone here.
Bird flu is not to be trifled with
Bird flu has been fatal in about half of all human cases reported, and death comes horribly, with the lungs filling with fluids and turning to jelly. One person who was saved from this fate with massive Prednisone infusions is now confined to a wheelchair because of skeletal decomposition. The progress of bird flu has been so rapid and so devastating in all
recorded cases that, were it to strike hundreds of people instead of just one or two, medical
faclities would be quickly overwhelmed. Worse, they would be suffering the impact of flu also: In a recent role-play scenario by the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia,
over a third of their employees were out "sick" by the end of the first week of the pandemic.
After ten years of gestating in Southeast Asia, the H5N1 bird flu virus has burst out and has now been found in Europe and Africa. Smuggled eagles seized in Los Angeles by Customs agents were found to carry the virus. If and when the avian virus mixes with a human flu virus and hence becomes easily transmissible from human to human, it will quickly follow air transport and infect every country on the globe. The only questions are when will this happen?
Preparing for emergencies used to be a community activity; now it is bureaucratized
Though the probability of a bird flu outbreak is unknown, most experts consider it a matter of time. The consequences will be grave, with death-toll estimates in the millions. Experts generally agree that government and medical institution capabilities will be overwhelmed by any significant pandemic. Because of widespread absenteeism, large parts of national
economies may grind to a halt. Because there likely will be insufficient effective vaccine during the first deadliest months of an avian flu pandemic, broad government and public participation in containing the spread of the virus will be critical.
Neighborhoods were once considered to be the foundation of Civil Defense in the United States, but since World War II have been largely forgotten. (In Germany and Switzerland, these civil defense mechanisms still exist.) Public health professionals were entrusted
with responsibility for public health, and the rest of society has largely relinquished any role in its own self-protection. This is fine so long as the emergencies to which the public health agencies must respond do not overstretch their resources. But an avian flu pandemic
would exhaust public health resources at all levels of government within weeks. It has been estimated that hundreds of respirators would be required in every major city in California, for instance, yet fewer than 150 exist now in all of California. The Bush Administration, in
announcing its support for pandemic flu counter-measures, warned all State governments
that if a pandemic strikes, the federal government will quickly reach its limits and State governments will be on their own. There is no reason to believe that government resources will be any more ample in Europe, and certainly not in developing countries.
What can be done?
The members of the Working Committee on Avian Flu Neighborhood Preparedness believe that neighborhoods are the missing actors in disaster preparedness, that informed and mobilized residents and community organizations can bring to bear powerful social resources that, as citizen response to Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, can complement the activities of official agencies.
If the bird flu is our “worst case scenario”, then any preparation for the flu is likely to be useful in adapting to any other kind of disaster. Disasters such as earthquakes, fires and terrorist incidents are not likely to have such generalized consequences as a deadly avian flu pandemic but, on the other hand, may be more likely to occur. Either way, as in planning for unlikely nuclear reactor accidents, it is important to plan and prepare, materially and organizationally. In the event that government agencies prove unable to cope fully with a disaster, advance agreement within neighborhoods and between neighborhoods and first-responder agencies will be the best possible insurance against pandemonium. Therein lies the best hope for the preservation of individuals, families, and society.
You can help your neighborhood prepare for the possibility of an avian influenza pandemic or other major disaster. Please join the Working Committee on Avian Flu Neighborhood Preparedness to empower communities, from the neighborhood level on up, by creating, testing, and disseminating ways for neighborhoods to prepare and respond. The Working Committee is still in its formative stages, so there is plenty of room for new thinking to be brought on board. Here is one idea:
Plan: To create a role-play scenario to "game" the process of responding to a pandemic. The participants will be real people representing their true roles in neighborhoods, neighborhood organizations, first-responder agencies, government, and businesses. The play will be both educational and practical. Before beginning there will be an educational presentation providing expert information on measures that individuals, families and neighborhoods can take, and how neighborhood preparedness can complement the activities of first responders, hospitals and government. Then play will begin, providing participants an opportunity to "table-top game" the first weeks of a worst-case scenario in the presence of local and State health officials and political leaders. Important practical and policy issues will crop up, providing real-time opportunities to address them and to start the political and technical processes to resolve them. Then, the results of play and of how the problems got ironed out will be published on a Wiki-based website that gives communities around the world the ability to use and contribute to the common knowledge base necessary for effective preparation and organization.
The Committee invites you to learn more about our plans, to get involved in their design and realization, and thereby to help yourself, your family, your community and the world to prepare, and to survive, disasters. Together we can create a model that can be adapted and implemented democratically all around the world.
And, as community response showed in Mexico City after the 1984 earthquake, community efforts can begin the countdown on unresponsive government and the rise of grassroots democracy.
Please contact Daniel Wolf at xdanielwolf@prepare4flu.orgx to get involved in this effort (remove the "x" at beginning and end of the address).
Related WiserEarth Portals
Ecological Change and Emerging Diseases, Infectious Diseases, Public Health
Pandemic flu? What does flu have to do with WiserEarth?
Pandemic flu may not have quite the cachet of global warming, nor quite the devastating long term effects, but millions dead in six weeks is pretty serious by anyone's measure. It is worth doing something to reduce its impact, should it strike. And if the measures undertaken strengthen grassroots democracy at the neighborhood level - as they must if neighborhoods are made the principal actors in the preparation drama - then helping prepare for pandemic flu and other disasters will increase communities' abilities to engage in a whole range
of activities of interest to everyone here.
Bird flu is not to be trifled with
Bird flu has been fatal in about half of all human cases reported, and death comes horribly, with the lungs filling with fluids and turning to jelly. One person who was saved from this fate with massive Prednisone infusions is now confined to a wheelchair because of skeletal decomposition. The progress of bird flu has been so rapid and so devastating in all
recorded cases that, were it to strike hundreds of people instead of just one or two, medical
faclities would be quickly overwhelmed. Worse, they would be suffering the impact of flu also: In a recent role-play scenario by the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia,
over a third of their employees were out "sick" by the end of the first week of the pandemic.
After ten years of gestating in Southeast Asia, the H5N1 bird flu virus has burst out and has now been found in Europe and Africa. Smuggled eagles seized in Los Angeles by Customs agents were found to carry the virus. If and when the avian virus mixes with a human flu virus and hence becomes easily transmissible from human to human, it will quickly follow air transport and infect every country on the globe. The only questions are when will this happen?
Preparing for emergencies used to be a community activity; now it is bureaucratized
Though the probability of a bird flu outbreak is unknown, most experts consider it a matter of time. The consequences will be grave, with death-toll estimates in the millions. Experts generally agree that government and medical institution capabilities will be overwhelmed by any significant pandemic. Because of widespread absenteeism, large parts of national
economies may grind to a halt. Because there likely will be insufficient effective vaccine during the first deadliest months of an avian flu pandemic, broad government and public participation in containing the spread of the virus will be critical.
Neighborhoods were once considered to be the foundation of Civil Defense in the United States, but since World War II have been largely forgotten. (In Germany and Switzerland, these civil defense mechanisms still exist.) Public health professionals were entrusted
with responsibility for public health, and the rest of society has largely relinquished any role in its own self-protection. This is fine so long as the emergencies to which the public health agencies must respond do not overstretch their resources. But an avian flu pandemic
would exhaust public health resources at all levels of government within weeks. It has been estimated that hundreds of respirators would be required in every major city in California, for instance, yet fewer than 150 exist now in all of California. The Bush Administration, in
announcing its support for pandemic flu counter-measures, warned all State governments
that if a pandemic strikes, the federal government will quickly reach its limits and State governments will be on their own. There is no reason to believe that government resources will be any more ample in Europe, and certainly not in developing countries.
What can be done?
The members of the Working Committee on Avian Flu Neighborhood Preparedness believe that neighborhoods are the missing actors in disaster preparedness, that informed and mobilized residents and community organizations can bring to bear powerful social resources that, as citizen response to Hurricane Katrina demonstrated, can complement the activities of official agencies.
If the bird flu is our “worst case scenario”, then any preparation for the flu is likely to be useful in adapting to any other kind of disaster. Disasters such as earthquakes, fires and terrorist incidents are not likely to have such generalized consequences as a deadly avian flu pandemic but, on the other hand, may be more likely to occur. Either way, as in planning for unlikely nuclear reactor accidents, it is important to plan and prepare, materially and organizationally. In the event that government agencies prove unable to cope fully with a disaster, advance agreement within neighborhoods and between neighborhoods and first-responder agencies will be the best possible insurance against pandemonium. Therein lies the best hope for the preservation of individuals, families, and society.
You can help your neighborhood prepare for the possibility of an avian influenza pandemic or other major disaster. Please join the Working Committee on Avian Flu Neighborhood Preparedness to empower communities, from the neighborhood level on up, by creating, testing, and disseminating ways for neighborhoods to prepare and respond. The Working Committee is still in its formative stages, so there is plenty of room for new thinking to be brought on board. Here is one idea:
Plan: To create a role-play scenario to "game" the process of responding to a pandemic. The participants will be real people representing their true roles in neighborhoods, neighborhood organizations, first-responder agencies, government, and businesses. The play will be both educational and practical. Before beginning there will be an educational presentation providing expert information on measures that individuals, families and neighborhoods can take, and how neighborhood preparedness can complement the activities of first responders, hospitals and government. Then play will begin, providing participants an opportunity to "table-top game" the first weeks of a worst-case scenario in the presence of local and State health officials and political leaders. Important practical and policy issues will crop up, providing real-time opportunities to address them and to start the political and technical processes to resolve them. Then, the results of play and of how the problems got ironed out will be published on a Wiki-based website that gives communities around the world the ability to use and contribute to the common knowledge base necessary for effective preparation and organization.
The Committee invites you to learn more about our plans, to get involved in their design and realization, and thereby to help yourself, your family, your community and the world to prepare, and to survive, disasters. Together we can create a model that can be adapted and implemented democratically all around the world.
And, as community response showed in Mexico City after the 1984 earthquake, community efforts can begin the countdown on unresponsive government and the rise of grassroots democracy.
Please contact Daniel Wolf at xdanielwolf@prepare4flu.orgx to get involved in this effort (remove the "x" at beginning and end of the address).
Related WiserEarth Portals
Ecological Change and Emerging Diseases, Infectious Diseases, Public Health
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