China's Choices

Controlling  Greenhouse Gasses

The Problem: Global Warming & Climate change

Reflections by Mike Seymour

• According to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, nine of the ten hottest years occurred in the last fifteen years.
• The 2007 assessment of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that the global mean temperature will increase by 3°C in this century, and cannot rule out as much as 6°C or more.
• Levels of several important greenhouse gases have increased by about 25 percent since large-scale industrialization began around 150 years ago (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
• World carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase by 1.9 percent annually between 2001 and 2025 (USA IEA)

·      During the 20th century, sea levels rose 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) due to melting glacier ice and expansion of warmer seawater. That is ten times faster than their 2000 year average. In the next 100 years, sea levels could rise as much as 85 cm (33 inches).

• In 2005, the British Antarctic Survey released findings that 87 percent of the glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated over the past 50 years.
• According to the IPCC, ice sheet models project that a local warming in Greenland of larger than 3°C, if sustained for millennia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a resulting sea-level rise of about 23 feet.
• Exhaustive computer simulations carried out at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO suggest that the Arctic Ocean will be mostly open water in the summer of 2040 — several decades earlier than expected.
• The 2003 European heat wave destroyed €11 billion worth in crops, while tremendous forest fires in the south of Europe have destroyed large ecosystems with serious effects on the tourism sector.
• The Interior Department proposes adding polar bears to the list of threatened species because of the accelerating loss of the Arctic ice that is the bears’ habitat.
• Australia's Great Barrier Reef, the world’s largest reef, could lose 95 percent of its living coral by 2050 should ocean temperatures increase by the 1.5 degrees Celsius projected by climate scientists.
• Half the people in the world live within 15 miles of a coastline. A large fraction of the major cities are on coastlines.
• A recent IPCC report estimates that between 1.1 billion and 3.2 billion people will be suffering from water scarcity problems by 2080 and between 200 million and 600 million more people will be going hungry.
• If sea levels rise 3 feet by 2100, as was projected by a 2001 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study, water would inundate some 22,400 square miles of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, primarily in Louisiana, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
• In February 2007, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, representing 216 societies and scientific academies, made their first public statement on climate change. “The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.”

As I sit here in South Whidbey Island, WA looking out my window at Puget Sound, the wind is blowing like crazy again, and, sure enough, we have our fourth power outage in the last two months. Meanwhile, my son living in New York City has had unusually balmy weather, true over the East coast throughout Fall and Winter of 2006.

And of course, as all this is going on, fresh in my mind are the images of Katrina—and the continued suffering of the have-nots still living in trailers—whose Level 5 ferocity scientists suggest  reflects warming waters and a warmer planet.

Welcome to the face of climate change and global warming which—if the worst predictions come true—could result in sea level rise impacting a quarter of the world’s population

over the next 100-150 years, with economic consequences globally which would be hard to imagine and estimate.

We could all get panicked about this and run for the exits, but the problem is there’s no place to run and hide.  Climate change, global warming and its many consequences are world-wide and will affect everyone on Earth. And as New Orleans showed us, it’s the least fortunate who pay the worst price first, since they have fewer resources to get out of the way of unpredictable weather.

What’s Happening

There is a consensus of scientific thought that global warming is, in fact, happening. But there is still some disagreement over the reasons. Some argue that Earth has been in a warming trend since the last great ice age of 9,000 BCE when glaciers covered most of North American and Eurasia. In fact, 12,000 years ago, some places where people happily live now were covered in a mile of solid ice. Civilization as we know it happened in what is called an “interglacial period” of warming temperatures, whereas most of the last 420,000 years were an ice age.  This theory states that after going through a mini ice age from 1400-1700 AD, we’re now in a natural uptrend continuing the warming from the last great ice age. Eventually, temperatures will go back down as the earth cycles through it’s natural ups and downs, so according to this theory, there’s less need to worry.

This is not proof of that the CO2 caused the warming. But, if it did not, then we have a remarkable coincidence. A thirty-year temperature increase is unusual. There was only one temperature swing of this size in the oldest thermometer record which dates back 350 years, and it was a down swing. Upswings of this magnitude would seem to happen only about once in 700 years, and this one happened right in step with human CO2 production.

Let’s play it safe and assume human activity is warming the planet, though we’re not sure exactly how much. There’s too much at stake to just continue with business as usual. Moreover, the solutions humans can bring to controlling greenhouse gases in many cases will bring economic and other environmental benefits that can offset whatever restraints or difficult transitions business and consumers will experience.

Greenhouse Gases (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Many chemical compounds found in the Earth’s atmosphere act as “greenhouse gases.” These gases allow sunlight to enter the atmosphere freely. When sunlight strikes the Earth’s surface, some of it is reflected back towards space as infrared radiation (heat). Greenhouse gases absorb this infrared radiation and trap the heat in the atmosphere, acting like a blanket that creates a warmer global atmosphere.

Many gases exhibit these “greenhouse” properties. Some of them occur in nature (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide), while others are exclusively human-made (like gases used for aerosols). Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases have gone up about 25% since large-scale industrialization began around 150 years ago. Concentrations of CO2 are usually regulated through numerous processes known as “the carbon cycle,” with carbon moving between air, land and oceans and dominated by natural processes, like plants and trees, which can absorb CO2. The Earth’s imbalance between emission and absorption reflects the continuing growth of CO2 and other greenhouse gases as well as the loss of plant and forest cover.

Energy use is the number one source of U.S. greenhouse emissions, followed by transportation. Oil and coal burned for energy are driven by economic growth and weather patterns affecting hot and cold temperatures. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions resulting from petroleum and natural gas represent 84% of total U.S., human-made greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. put out about 6,086 million metric tons of CO2 in 2005, about 25% of the world total. Compare that with the fact that U.S. population is less than 5% of world total, and you’ll see why the international community is frustrated and fearful about American attitudes and behavior about global warming and control of CO2. In fact, the average American household generates about 55,000 pounds of carbon dioxide annually, compared to the typical German household of 27,000 and only 15,000 for the average Swedish household.

          ENERGY END-USE BY SECTOR of CO2 EMISSIONS (millions of metric tons)

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Looking at sources of U.S. CO2 emissions in the chart above, we see that transportation is the biggest, reflecting consumption and combustion of petroleum products in cars, trucks, airplanes and the like. The industrial sector, while down, is nonetheless a large contributor. Much of that CO2 is a byproduct of power generated from coal, one of the most polluting sources of energy.  With oil prices spiking, there is genuine concern over the worldwide growth in coal-fired plant construction. This concern is centered especially in China, which is undergoing an economic boom and also has some of the dirtiest cities in the world.

Impacts of Global Warming

We are now just beginning to realize the great variety of consequences resulting from a warming planet. Sea level rise causes the greatest popular concern, with images of land loss in low-lying and coastal areas like Bangladesh, some Pacific Islands, the Netherlands, and the southeastern states of the U.S. We already are seeing much more unpredictability overall in the weather—more storms, flooding due to higher rainfalls in some places; whereas parts of the world are becoming more arid, exacerbating already low water supplies.  With weather change comes greater winds, like we had in Puget Sound, WA in 2006-07, and fiercer storms like Hurricane Katrina.

Human health is likewise at stake. During the European heat wave of 2003, 19,000 people died of heat stroke in France alone. Warming temperatures also extend the geographical range of viruses and insects that affect human health, like malaria, yellow fever, and the West Nile Virus carried by a mosquito which arrived in North America just within the last five years.  Higher temperatures could affect crop production especially poorer, isolated agricultural areas, like sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and tropical parts of Latin America, worsening the already dire situation of famine. The World Health Organization has calculated that that by 2020, climate change could kill 300,000 people worldwide each year, an estimate considered extremely conservative by some experts. If one were to take the effects of climate change on the world’s food production and the increased risk of hunger, some models predict that as many as 80 million additional people would join the ranks of the hungry and chronically undernourished by the year 2080.

Species are already on the move, as found in a Monterey Bay study by Stanford University’s Hopkins Marine Station. Cold-loving marine invertebrates moved out, and the populations of species accustomed to warmer water increased.  In Canada, millions of acres of lush green forests are turning red and dying. A voracious beetle, whose population has exploded with the warming climate, is killing more trees than wildfires or logging. The mountain pine beetle has infested an area three times the size of Maryland, devastating swaths of lodgepole pines and reshaping the future of the forest and the communities in it. Besides disease, researchers also suggest that the hotter climate will simply make ecosystems uninhabitable for many tree and plant species. So look at the trees and shrubs around you—the natural landscape could appear very different for many of U.S. in another 50 years.

In the future, global warming will reflect the increased wealth of the world, not just population growth. Japanese environmental scientist Yoichi Kaya has developed a formula now in use by many NGOs to calculate future CO2 output which factors in the growing, wealthier middle classes of India and China, already 1/3 of the world’s population:

CO2 emissions = Population x Wealth (gross domestic product/population) x Energy-intensiveness of wealth creation (energy/unit GDP) x Carbon-intensiveness of energy production (CO2/energy).

This puts an even greater importance on developed nations to pioneer green, non-carbon based and affordable energy sources, as both China (in particular) and India are racing to fuel economic growth with plentiful coal supplies.  It is unlikely that either China or India will succumb to the insistence of the U.S. or Europe to slow their economies or to bear the total cost of going to green power, as they will cite this as a form of economic imperialism.  In other words, the Chinese and Indians have every right to complain that America and Europe have had their day at the table of cheap fossil fuels, and cannot all of a sudden simply expect the economic latecomers to bear all the burden for environmental responsibilities.

Controlling Greenhouse Gases: Some Solutions

In spite of the unpredictability of the climate, we do know that greenhouse gases can be controlled. We have the technology now to do that.  Here are some of the more important initiatives going on internationally and in the U.S.:

An International Regulatory Response: The Kyoto Protocol to control greenhouse gas emissions. http://unfccc.int/2860.php

The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases.

The Kyoto Protocol now covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By 2008-2012, developed countries have to reduce their GHG emissions by an average of 5% below their 1990 levels (for many countries, such as the EU member states, this corresponds to some 15% below their expected GHG emissions in 2008). While the average emissions reduction is 5%, national targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union to a 10% emissions increase for Iceland. Reduction targets expire in 2013.

There is an important controversy in the U.S. and around the world about the United States’ refusal to ratify and join this protocol and making it binding. Several administrations have cited financial costs to the U.S. economy and concerns about exemptions given to China, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter, on its way to being the largest in another 30 years. But the world cannot afford any further delay from the United States in terms of a serious commitment to CO2 reduction.

UK Country-wide Initiative

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=442150&in_page_id=1770

Under a plan sponsored by Prime Minister Tony Blair, the British government is working on legislation that would make Britain the world’s leading green economy with binding targets for CO2 emissions.  The Labor Party’s agenda is to set an interim target of 26-32% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020, and 60% by 2050. The regulation will involve penalties and guidelines that encourage new construction to be carbon neutral, through using good insulation, solar panels, or wind power and environmentally-friendly building materials. Higher vehicle mileage standards will be set, with incentives for public transportation use.

State Legal Action

http://www.oag.state.ny.us/press/2003/feb/feb20a_03.html

Former Attorney General of New York State (and now its Governor) Eliot Spitzer set a precedent in environmental championing with seven other states. He filed a law suit in federal court against the nation’s biggest carbon dioxide emitting power companies. These include some 174 coal-fired power plants that release 650 million tons of CO2. New York City was also part of this suit.

The action seeks direct cuts in the emissions responsible for global warming. The lawsuit, the result of legal work initiated by Spitzer and his Environmental Protection Bureau, attempts to overcome the federal government’s unwillingness to address the threat of catastrophic climate change.

The suit asks a federal court in New York City to declare global warming a “public nuisance” and to order the five companies to cut their emissions of CO2. Targeted in the lawsuit are five leading power generators: American Electric Power, Cinergy Corp., First Energy, Southern Co., Xcel Energy, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Together, the five companies are responsible for 10 percent of all the industrial CO2 emissions in the country.

Mileage Standards for Greater Fuel Economy

http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/CAFE/overview.htm

According to Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service, American drivers spent $364 billion dollars on gasoline, double 2002 expenditures. They are responsible for the consumption of 1 out of 9 barrels of crude oil. Not only does our oil dependency create an unsafe energy situation—due to the volatile political situation in oil-producing areas (like the Middle East and Nigeria)—but it also represents a huge economic drain and is a principal contributor to CO2 emissions. Greater auto fuel efficiency is one key, near-term strategy to help alleviate these issues.

The “Energy Policy Conservation Act,” enacted into law by Congress in 1975, added Title V, “Improving Automotive Efficiency,” to the Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act. It also established CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards for passenger cars and light trucks. The Act was passed in response to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo. The near-term goal was to double new car fuel economy by model year 1985. The current standard pf 27.5 mpg for passenger automobiles and 20.7 for light trucks (also including SUVs) has stayed the same for too many years, many complain. Given the rise in oil prices, oil insecurity in the Middle East, and the surge in sales of SUVs with poor fuel economy, many say it is time to increase CAFE standards. A currently proposed goal would be 40 miles per gallon.

Caps on Greenhouse Gases:  Go Arnold

http://www.calepa.ca.gov/Legislation/2006/FactSheetAB32.pdf

Arnold Schwarzenegger, longtime movie star action hero and now Governor of California, made big news internationally when he signed into law the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32, Nunez/Pavley).  This law creates a statewide cap on global warming pollution that will reduce statewide emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 -- a 25 percent cut in pollution from the state's biggest polluters such as power plants, refineries, and large manufacturers. This represents a huge step for a state which is the world’s sixth largest economy, and sets the pace for other U.S. states to do likewise in spite of foot-dragging by the federal government on initiatives like the Kyoto protocol.

Alternative Energy and Fuels 

http://www.nrel.gov/

Non-fossil, renewable energy and fuel sources are overdue in becoming a significant factor in the world economy. Not only do carbon-based fuels pollute, but the era of cheap oil has peaked, and supplies are expected to dwindle in the next 30 years, especially as the Chinese and Indian economies grow even more and put pressure on the world oil supply. Fortunately, there has been a great amount of research and development around energy and fuel alternatives, and many large scale applications in such areas as solar power, and wind energy. For example, wind is the world’s fastest-growing alternative energy source with an average annual growth rate of 29 percent over the last ten years. Denmark already gets almost 20% of its electrical needs met through wind power. Other power sources include solar photovoltaic panels which prove cost-effective in sunny climates, and biomass—such as plants, trees, grasses and crops—which can be used as solid fuels or converted into liquid or gaseous forms. An interesting technology is the hydrogen fuel cell.  Hydrogen is the simplest and most abundant element in the universe. Hydrogen can be produced from a wide variety of domestic resources using a number of different technologies. Fuel cells harness the chemical energy of hydrogen to generate electricity without combustion or pollution. Steorn, an Irish company (http://www.steorn.net), even claims to have developed a prototype of a free energy machine, a micro-generator with unique configurations that appeared to be over 100% efficient—meaning there is no energy loss.

Corporate Green Campaigns: Who Would Have Thought Walmart? 

http://www.walmartfacts.com/featuredtopics/?id=1

Who would have thought that Walmart--the brunt of social activist and anti-globalization protests over its business practices—would be in the race to set records for greener business practices?  Perhaps in becoming the world’s largest corporation in 2001—and now at over 300 billion dollars in 2006 revenues with over 6,700 stores worldwide—Walmart felt it was good business to go green. Walmart is adding new hybrid vehicles to its fleet, replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs, and building new stores with solar panels and wind turbines for power. Their flagship campaign is a commitment to sell one compact fluorescent bulb for all of their 100 million customers. If that were to happen, it would keep 22 billion lbs. of coal from being burned at power plants and 45 billion lbs. of greenhouse gases from being emitted. Beyond Walmart, there are more large companies every day joining the campaign to cut CO2 emissions. In May 2007, General Motors just joined one such group (USCAP-the United States Climate Action Plan: http://www.us-cap.org/) which now has 22 corporate partners calling on the federal government to cut greenhouose gas emissions by 60-80%. These include big names like Alcoa (aluminum), BP America (oil), Deer & Co. (machinery), DuPont (chemicals), General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, and many environmental groups.

Ride Sharing:

Ride Sharing:

GoLoco http://goloco.org/greetings;guest

In many parts of the U.S. and Europe, innvovative forms of auto-sharing are being tried, which saves individuals money and keeps CO2 emissions down. One is GoLoco. People can use GoLoco to share rides for free. Or they can choose to share trip costs quickly and easily online before the trip, without the awkward money discussion or exchange in the car. GoLoco collects each passenger's share of the total trip costs before the trip begins and transfers it to the driver using online accounts. Other services include ZipCar and CarSharing.net which operate primarily in cities, with the idea that city dwellers really don’t need their own car. These outfits station cars at selected spots in various urban neighborhoods which people can book online and rent by the hour, by the day, or for a block of hours each month for very reasonable fees.